The big question may whether the current library vendor service models can make a company profitable in the long run. Vendors will have to compete over services not features. This should force them to be more creative in this area. As the cost structure for services is smaller than up-front license and maintenance fee lock-in, the successful vendor will have to come up with more service offerings. They will have to adapt more quickly as well.

The change in the vendor service model may be true, whether libraries use OSS or not. (The real question for us is whether they use an OSS ILS, because they are OSS.) The next generation of librarians seems to be more comfortable with technology and changing technology. There expectations are going to be much higher technology partners. Software development has reached a new kind of plateau. (http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/the_future_of_software_development.php) The future doesn’t depend copying the newest type of infrastructure, but on assembling parts from a cornucopia of technologies.

Is there a perfect storm in the works?

Quality is another important benefit. The fact that the source code is available will mean that are few bugs, better security and better design. It will be looked at by any number of very smart people that will be able to praise and criticize the actual code. This peer review, like peer review in journals, is an extra layer of quality assurance.

Collaboration is the other benefit that I see. The collaboration that I think about goes beyond the development community. It is the wider openness that is part of open source software. No one has to sign a non-disclosure agreement to use it. All of those things that make the whole product can be shared and built upon. Documentation, training materials and presentations also have licenses that promote sharing and building upon. Developers of products that interact with another system can study the API in detail to make a seamless connection. The product is so much more than a particular software package.

Based on my own experiences (which clearly are biased), I would expect a growing counter-trend involving libraries that take charge of their own destiny, implement innovative solutions, and in turn challenge established vendors to improve their products. Small software companies have a role to play here, but library schools are increasingly churning out “librarian-geeks” who are keen to experiment and challenge preconceptions about technology — just look at some of the fiery debate around MARC vs. alternative data models. Add to this that service-based architectures, open APIs and high-level development tools bring application development into the hands of more and more people, and you have an exciting mix.

These are really exciting times. Don’t get me wrong… if librarians don’t step up, they could find themselves going the way of the old-school travel agents in the age of Orbitz & co.. but my sense is that they *do* step up, and the vendors will either do their part, or they are the ones who’ll become irrelevant.

–Sebastian